A Shrinking Society: Post-Demographic Transition in Japan by Toshihiko Hara

By Toshihiko Hara

This is the publication to target a brand new phenomenon rising within the twenty-first century: the swiftly getting older and reducing inhabitants of a well-developed state, specifically, Japan. The which means of this phenomenon has been effectively clarified because the attainable ancient final result of the demographic transition from excessive delivery and loss of life charges to low ones. Japan has entered the post-demographic transitional part and should be the fastest-shrinking society on the planet, top different Asian nations which are experiencing an analogous drastic adjustments. the writer used the historic information, compiled by means of the Statistic Bureau, Ministry of inner Affairs and Communications in 2006 and inhabitants projections for published in 2012 through the nationwide Institute of inhabitants and Social defense learn, to teach the previous and destiny improvement of the dependency ratio from 1891 to 2060. Then, using the inhabitants lifestyles desk and web copy fee, the consequences of accelerating lifestyles expectancy and declining fertility at the dependency ratio have been saw individually. ultimately, the old relationships between women’s survival premiums at reproductive age, the theoretical fertility cost to take care of the alternative point and the recorded overall fertility cost (TFR) have been analyzed. ancient remark confirmed TFR adapting to the theoretical point of fertility with a undeniable time lag and equivalent to women’s survival charges at reproductive age. Women’s expanding lifespan and survival premiums can have encouraged selection making to lessen the danger of childbearing. no matter if the theoretical fertility expense meets the substitute point, women’s perspectives of minimizing the chance may well stay unchanged simply because for ladies the cost–benefit imbalance in childbearing continues to be too excessive in Japan. in keeping with the findings, the writer discusses the sustainability of jap society in terms of nationwide funds, social protection reform, family members guidelines, immigration guidelines and group polices.

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However, under the present conditions in which elder dependency ratio is increasing and the economy is stagnating, the imbalance between benefits and contributions is automatically increasing in the near future. Thus, the Japanese pension system has been reviewed and reformed. In the 2004 revision, also called ‘Hyakunen Anshin Nenkinn (Safety Pension Plan for 100 years)’, the benefits and burdens are readjusted. 2 % from FY2023 onward) of the average income of a household with an active salaried worker.

In this context, the scheme of social security service should be transformed from ‘benefits based on contribution’ to ‘benefits based on the needs and the contribution according to competence’. In such case, the benefits from pension and medical care should be defined and guaranteed as national minimum, which including the part from recipients’ own payment. The total amount of social security benefits would be essentially constricted to the minimum. As a result, the relatively wealthy and healthy people would receive almost nothing from the benefits even they have relatively high contribution in the past.

Jinkougaku Kenkyukai, ed. 2010. Gendai Jinkogaku Jiten ( Contemporary dictionary of population). Tokyo: Hara Shobo. Kaneko, Ryuichi, Ishikawa, Akira, Ishi, Futoshi, Sasai, Tsukasa, Iwasawa, Miho, Mita, Fusami, and Moriizumi, Rie. 2008. Population projections for Japan: 2006–2055. Japanese Journal of Population 6(1). files/population/2008_4/05population. pdf. Accessed 15 Feb 2014. NIPSSR. 2012. Population statistics of Japan 2012. asp. Accessed 24 Feb 2014. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

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